This and That for Sunday

~~~ Talk of a brokered Republican convention (where none of the four candidates for the GOP nod don't get the necessary fifty-percent of the delegates) is becoming louder and more pronounced. So long as the four now in the race stay in the possibility becomes a likelihood. We are fast approaching such a stage.

The two probable candidates who could emerge are Jeb Bush and Sarah Palin. Bush would be the candidate of the status quot while Palin would draw her support from the Reagan wing of the party. 

Who would win in such a scenario? Tough question to answer. Bush would likely have a majority of the delegates on his side while Palin would need to troll through the "renegades" selected as delegates. We could witness an old fashioned convention where there would be many ballots. A great deal of importance will be on the number of delegates Ron Paul is able to gather. If he has a serious handful of delegates committed to him he could hold out and negotiate with the candidates remaining in the race. 

Since Paul delegates are by and large committed to Paul ideologically they would do his bidding through thick and thin. One complicating factor is Paul's reluctance to do anything to harm his son's standing in the party and his place in the senate.

While we seem to be a long way from the convention many of the elements necessary to throw the convention into a dither are present.

A friend just called to share a thought. Will Romney drop out if he loses Michigan and follows up with a poor showing on Super Tuesday? No that's a Sixty-four dollar question.

One further thought, would the above ensure the president's reelection?

~~~ Iran seems to be encouraging an attack on itself by its actions. Israel realizes it cannot wait for Iran to acknowledge it has the bomb to prevent a scenario where Iran can hold its neighbors as well as Israel hostage. Also, based on what we know about Iranian missiles they could reach anywhere in Europe. Very few strategic areas of the world would be safe from a possible Iranian attack.

The Arab world is very concerned with a nuclear capable Iran and the time is soon coming when some of the worst lunatics in the world would have the ultimate weapons capability. The time for action is running out and Israel's attitude and policy will not wait for condolences from the rest of the world because Iran took the "ultimate" step.

~~~ We currently have the highest gas prices for this time of year, ever. According to people in the know we had better be prepared for five dollar a gallon gasoline before summer's end.

Candidate Barack Obama made clear we needed to elevate the price of gasoline at the pump by whatsoever means necessary. The thinking back then was his belief that higher prices would push us into conservation. 

The reality is we are now competing with other countries, especially China, for the available gasoline on world markets. Add to all this is the problem created by our difficulties with Iran. 

The impact of high gas prices is a middle-class one. Anyone with a job needs gasoline to commute to work and perform ordinarily family chores such as shopping, transportation of kids to and fro, etc.

Keep in mind that in New England  our heating oil prices generally rise and fall along side gasoline prices. At five dollars per gallon a fill up of 230 gallons will cost a family about $1,050. Just five years ago the prices ranged between  $.75 to $1.25 a gallon. For most middle income families heating oil prices coupled with astronomical prices at the gas pump mean a drastic reduction in in their standard of living. For most lower middle income families the above scenario makes life miserable.

~~~ Mitt Romney says the highly negative political ads are at the heart of poor turnouts in GOP presidential primaries. He is right and is also along with Ron Paul one of the two biggest offenders.

Usually hard fought primaries energize the parties and the electorate. In the last election cycle the tough battles between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were in part the reason for the president's electoral success. Not so this year for Republicans. With the exception of Florida the turnout has been sub-par. 

Most of the scummy advertising has been aimed at Newt Gingrich and Romney is now focusing on Rick Santorum.

As we said above all the efforts of the four present candidates for the GOP nomination could be for naught if we wind up with a brokered convention.

~~~ While we're heavily focused on a possible attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities as we discussed above, there's another fiasco waiting to happen. Syria has been testing the patience of the world by slaughtering more than five thousand of their citizens over a period of less than a year. 

The Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad and his minions seem unrepentant over the slaughter. This not the first time the tyrants running Syria have performed such carnage. Assad's father did the same thing to impose his will on the people of Syria.

As was the case in Libya we have little understanding of who and what the opposition is. We don't know for sure whether they will be any better than the present dictators. One thing is known and that is whatever replaces the Syrian government cannot be any worse.

It makes strategic sense that we funnel weapons and knowledge to the insurgents. If liberty is their quest it can only work in our favor for us to support their efforts.

~~~ 

I just caught most of the Alzheimer's show done by Fox News this afternoon. Its focus was brought on by the understanding of Glenn Campbell's revelation he is afflicted by the disease which can best be described as a slow death. 

Our experience with two family members with the affliction which covered a period of more than ten years has left an indelible mark.

We are left with a deep feeling of sharing with the Campbell family. The disease is maddening because nothing one can imagine is about to occur in the Campbell family and close circle of friends.

Maria Shriver appeared on the Fox program and his a bunch of hot buttons with our family. Her Dad lived with and then died from the disease.

If you know anyone dealing with Alzheimer's they need your support is desperately needed. Everything from kind words all the way to sitting with the patient is a huge lift to the dedicated family members. If you can help or need help in any way please contact www.alzfdn.org

~~~ Our congratulations are due to newly installed Cardinal Timothy Dolan Arch Bishop of New York. By all accounts he is different from his peers. He seems to be an unusually down to earth fellow.  Is he a possible successor to 

Pope Benedict?

Enjoy the rest of your day.

Ciao.......Moe Lauzier